@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying - There is the precedent of the 2004 Beijing leaks and the attempted cover-up of the Feb cases. And of many leaks before (including the SARS military-P4 leak in Taiwan and the P3 in Singapre).

- There is the precedent of zoonosis (SARS-1, MERS).

@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying Feed these and other elements (biosafety asesssements, level of BatCoV activity in the various Wuhan labs, etc) into the priors and the odds are very clear: both hypothesis are valid.

And that's before you even consider the biological argument and the suspicious behaviour

@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying of China and its constant obfuscations, including their conspiracy theories.

So no, the zoonosis hypothesis is not more valid. It may be less comfortable, but that is a different issue.

And the present lack of a smoking gun means nothing.

@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying Think about the re-emergence of H1N1 Influenza Virus in 1977, most likely due to an accident in a Chinese lab. NEVER acknowledged but undeniable as a lab accident.


@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying Then take the Sverlovsk anthrax release. A lab accident in 1979. Never ackowledged by Russia to this day.
It took more then 20 years to start putting the pieces together.

@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying The Soviet authorities blamed the 100+ deaths on consumption of tainted meat from the area and exposure due to butchers handling the tainted meat.

Sounds like the market story all over again.

@StevenMeyer17 @SkySprinter1138 @HeatherEHeying @threadreaderapp compile