Have you ever wondered why the Lancet study graph had no cases on the last 4 days of December 2019?

That study used the official figures released by China on the 3rd Jan 2020 after an express request from the WHO on the 1st Jan.


Have you ever wondered why the CDC report on the 26th January has a big jump on the 1st Jan 2020?

Weird - suddenly plenty of cases starting spot on the 1st Jan.


Have you ever wondered why when you magnify the Dec part of that graph, you see cases on the 5th , 7th, 8th of December (confirmed or suspected)?

And plenty of cases from the 27th to the 31st.

That graph was published 2 days after the Lancet paper.

That jump on the 1st Jan is then confirmed by a CDC paper published on the 17th Feb

And if you look carefully, you will notice that there is an odd fat tail from the 1st to the 3rd Jan, on top of the jump on the 1st Jan.


At least that paper gave a precise count of confirmed cases for Dec 19: 104 (confirmed, not suspected).

It's in Table 1:

But then when you revert the graph you end up with 102 cases, not 104:

Basically the graph was artificially cut at the 8th Dec when there were two more cases before.

Which must be very useful because it ties up with what China told the WHO earlier in January:

"Symptom onset of the 41 confirmed nCoV cases ranges from 8 December 2019 to 2 January 2020. "


It also tied up with Li et al paper of the 29 Jan 20 which has the first case on the 8 Dec and a total of 47 confirmed cases for Dec 19.

Anyway the last we semi-officially know is that there were at least 124 confirmed cases with Dec 19 onset (ToRS backdoor disclosure in Nov 20).

Not far from the 104 of the CDC report of the 17 Feb 2020 with its fancy artificial jump and fat leg on the 1st Jan 2020.

But we also have the SCMP leak of the 13 Mar 2020, for confirmed cases also (not suspected).


A leak of government data that gives 6 Nov 19 cases, and 266 confirmed Dec cases.

And STILL a big artificial jump on the 1st Jan 2020...

Which would mean at least 300 confirmed cases for Dec 19.

It looks like a lot.
But actually it's not that far from the CNN leak of the 1st Dec 20 based on official data (proper forensic checks) that must date from before Apr 20.

That data gave about 200 Dec 19 cases.

So. all well considered, especially given that artificial 'wall' on the 1st Jan where all of a sudden the numbers jump up:

250 to 300 confirmed cases with onset in 2019 is a very likely scenario.

The backdoor-official 124 are likely not half of the true count

@threadreaderapp compile